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Will These 3 Auto Stocks Surpass Q4 Earnings Forecasts?
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Key Takeaways
AAP is expected to post 136% EPS growth, though revenues are projected to dip 2%.
MGA is likely to beat estimates, with Power & Vision revenues and EBIT seen rising year over year.
DCH forecasts a wider Q4 loss despite revenue growth and strong recent earnings beats.
The fourth-quarter earnings season for the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector is in full swing. Auto biggies like Ford, General Motors and Tesla have released results, and the picture has been mixed. While Ford delivered disappointing results, snapping its four-quarter earnings beat streak, General Motors managed to surpass estimates for the 14th straight quarter. Both companies have guided a stronger 2026. Electric vehicle giant Tesla also managed to pull off an earnings surprise, but what caught investors' attention most was its massive capex plan of more than $20 billion this year.
Per the Earnings Outlook report dated Feb. 11, the auto sector’s earnings for fourth-quarter 2025 are expected to decline 14.2% on a year-over-year basis. Revenues are also estimated to contract 4.6%.
Three auto companies— Advance Auto Parts (AAP - Free Report) , Magna International (MGA - Free Report) and Dauch Corporation (DCH - Free Report) — are scheduled to report their fourth-quarter 2025 results tomorrow. Before we discuss the companies, let’s take a look at the broader factors shaping the quarterly performance of the auto sector.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto industry lost steam in the fourth quarter after a strong run earlier in the year. Vehicle sales slowed noticeably, with the annualized pace falling to 15.6 million units from 16.4 million in the third quarter, per Cox Automotive. This made the fourth quarter the weakest period of the year.
Tariffs on imported vehicles and components continued to put pressure on automakers, raising costs and weighing on profitability. Inflation also remained a concern, squeezing both manufacturers and consumers. After nine months of resilient demand, these pressures finally caught up with the market. Affordability became a major issue for buyers. New vehicle prices climbed to record levels, with the average transaction price reaching $50,326 in December, according to Kelley Blue Book.
The electric vehicle (EV) market saw an even sharper slowdown. After a strong third quarter, EV demand cooled rapidly in the fourth quarter following the expiration of federal tax credits in early October. Per Cox Automotive, EV sales were 234,000 units in the fourth quarter, down 46% and 36% on a sequential and a year-over-year basis, respectively.
Overall, the fourth quarter reflected a more cautious consumer and a market adjusting to higher costs, fewer incentives and tougher economic conditions.
What’s in Store for AAP, MGA and DCH?
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Advance Auto is set to report earnings before the opening bell. It is one of the leadingautomotive aftermarket parts providers. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AAP this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -2.14% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus mark for AAP’s comps growth is pegged at 2.23% versus a decline of 1% in the corresponding quarter of 2024. While store footprint optimization program and efforts to consolidate supply chain bode well for the company, rising debt and weakness in the DIY segment remain concerning.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAP’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 43 cents per share (implying growth of a whopping 136% on a year-over-year basis) and $1.95 billion (suggesting a year-over-year decline of 2%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the fourth quarter has moved down by a cent in the past seven days. Advance Auto surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Magna is scheduled to report results before market open. It is one of the leading automotive suppliers. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for MGA this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +3.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The company’s Power & Vision segment is expected to aid results. The consensus mark for the unit’s revenues and adjusted EBIT is $3,796 million and $269 million, respectively, indicating an increase from $3,786 million and $235 million, respectively, recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. While Magna’s broad range of product and service offerings, ADAS technology development and new business wins should aid results, tariff woes may somewhat offset gains.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.81 per share (implying growth of 7% on a year-over-year basis) and $10.5 billion (suggesting a year-over-year decline of 1%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the fourth quarter has moved up by 3 cents in the past 30 days. Magna surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other occasion.
Dauch is slated to post quarterly results before the opening bell. The automotive components manufacturer, formerly known as American Axle & Manufacturing, was rebranded as Dauch and began trading under the ticker DCH following the completion of its acquisition of Dowlais Group plc and its subsidiaries, GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for DCH this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +124.47% but a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. Frequent program wins across ICE, hybrid and EV applications, along with a constructive shift in quoting activity, bode well for the company. However, management had flagged various fourth-quarter headwinds like normal seasonality, extended holiday downtime, and pockets of production volatility from recent customer disruptions, which are expected to hurt results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DCH’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at a loss of 7 cents per share (implying a deterioration of 17% on a year-over-year basis) and $1.4 billion (suggesting year-over-year growth of 2%), respectively. The estimate for loss per share for the fourth quarter has narrowed by 5 cents in the past 30 days. The company surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
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Will These 3 Auto Stocks Surpass Q4 Earnings Forecasts?
Key Takeaways
The fourth-quarter earnings season for the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector is in full swing. Auto biggies like Ford, General Motors and Tesla have released results, and the picture has been mixed. While Ford delivered disappointing results, snapping its four-quarter earnings beat streak, General Motors managed to surpass estimates for the 14th straight quarter. Both companies have guided a stronger 2026. Electric vehicle giant Tesla also managed to pull off an earnings surprise, but what caught investors' attention most was its massive capex plan of more than $20 billion this year.
Per the Earnings Outlook report dated Feb. 11, the auto sector’s earnings for fourth-quarter 2025 are expected to decline 14.2% on a year-over-year basis. Revenues are also estimated to contract 4.6%.
Three auto companies— Advance Auto Parts (AAP - Free Report) , Magna International (MGA - Free Report) and Dauch Corporation (DCH - Free Report) — are scheduled to report their fourth-quarter 2025 results tomorrow. Before we discuss the companies, let’s take a look at the broader factors shaping the quarterly performance of the auto sector.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto industry lost steam in the fourth quarter after a strong run earlier in the year. Vehicle sales slowed noticeably, with the annualized pace falling to 15.6 million units from 16.4 million in the third quarter, per Cox Automotive. This made the fourth quarter the weakest period of the year.
Tariffs on imported vehicles and components continued to put pressure on automakers, raising costs and weighing on profitability. Inflation also remained a concern, squeezing both manufacturers and consumers. After nine months of resilient demand, these pressures finally caught up with the market. Affordability became a major issue for buyers. New vehicle prices climbed to record levels, with the average transaction price reaching $50,326 in December, according to Kelley Blue Book.
The electric vehicle (EV) market saw an even sharper slowdown. After a strong third quarter, EV demand cooled rapidly in the fourth quarter following the expiration of federal tax credits in early October. Per Cox Automotive, EV sales were 234,000 units in the fourth quarter, down 46% and 36% on a sequential and a year-over-year basis, respectively.
Overall, the fourth quarter reflected a more cautious consumer and a market adjusting to higher costs, fewer incentives and tougher economic conditions.
What’s in Store for AAP, MGA and DCH?
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Advance Auto is set to report earnings before the opening bell. It is one of the leadingautomotive aftermarket parts providers. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AAP this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -2.14% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus mark for AAP’s comps growth is pegged at 2.23% versus a decline of 1% in the corresponding quarter of 2024. While store footprint optimization program and efforts to consolidate supply chain bode well for the company, rising debt and weakness in the DIY segment remain concerning.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAP’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 43 cents per share (implying growth of a whopping 136% on a year-over-year basis) and $1.95 billion (suggesting a year-over-year decline of 2%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the fourth quarter has moved down by a cent in the past seven days. Advance Auto surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Quote
Magna is scheduled to report results before market open. It is one of the leading automotive suppliers. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for MGA this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +3.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The company’s Power & Vision segment is expected to aid results. The consensus mark for the unit’s revenues and adjusted EBIT is $3,796 million and $269 million, respectively, indicating an increase from $3,786 million and $235 million, respectively, recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. While Magna’s broad range of product and service offerings, ADAS technology development and new business wins should aid results, tariff woes may somewhat offset gains.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.81 per share (implying growth of 7% on a year-over-year basis) and $10.5 billion (suggesting a year-over-year decline of 1%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the fourth quarter has moved up by 3 cents in the past 30 days. Magna surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other occasion.
Magna International Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Magna International Inc. price-eps-surprise | Magna International Inc. Quote
Dauch is slated to post quarterly results before the opening bell. The automotive components manufacturer, formerly known as American Axle & Manufacturing, was rebranded as Dauch and began trading under the ticker DCH following the completion of its acquisition of Dowlais Group plc and its subsidiaries, GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for DCH this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +124.47% but a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. Frequent program wins across ICE, hybrid and EV applications, along with a constructive shift in quoting activity, bode well for the company. However, management had flagged various fourth-quarter headwinds like normal seasonality, extended holiday downtime, and pockets of production volatility from recent customer disruptions, which are expected to hurt results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DCH’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at a loss of 7 cents per share (implying a deterioration of 17% on a year-over-year basis) and $1.4 billion (suggesting year-over-year growth of 2%), respectively. The estimate for loss per share for the fourth quarter has narrowed by 5 cents in the past 30 days. The company surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Dauch Corp. Price and EPS Surprise
Dauch Corp. price-eps-surprise | Dauch Corp. Quote